社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.004

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 24-29.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.004

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇下一篇

社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析

陈长坤教授, 赵冬月

中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所, 湖南长沙 410075

收稿日期:2020-09-02 修回日期:2020-11-07 出版日期:2020-12-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
作者简介:陈长坤 (1977—),男,福建福安人,博士,教授,主要从事火灾科学与消防工程、城市公共安全及应急管理、长大隧道防灾安全技术等方面的研究。E-mail: cckchen@ csu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目资助(71790613,72091512);湖南省高新技术产业科技创新引领计划项目(2020SK20004)。

Analysis of crisis deduction and prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic from a socio-economic perspective

CHEN Changkun, ZHAO Dongyue

Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology, Central South University, Changsha Hunan 410075, China

Received:2020-09-02 Revised:2020-11-07 Online:2020-12-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)危机防控能力,从社会经济角度出发,利用灾害演化理论和方法,研究COVID-19危机演化机制和特点,并进一步提出相应风险防控措施;通过案例分析,构建社会经济视角下COVID-19危机事件演化网络,依据演化先后顺序对各危机事件作分级和归类;针对构建的演化网络,分析危机事件节点出入度及其演化模式,并提出治理策略和措施。结果表明:COVID-19引发的企业效益下降危机事件威胁最大;COVID-19危机演化过程中循环演化方式对社会经济活动的影响最为严重;在应对COVID-19危机时,可结合不同演化方式的特点阻断防控危机事件诱发条件。

关键词: 社会经济, 新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19), 危机推演, 风险防控, 演化网络

Abstract: In order to improve abilities to prevent and control COVID-19, its mechanism and characteristics were studied from a socio-economic perspective by using disaster evolution theory and methods, and corresponding measures about risk prevention and control were proposed. Firstly, An evolution network of COVID-19 crisis events was constructed through case analysis from a socio-economic perspective before these events were further graded and classified according to gradual sequence. Then, degree of entry and exit of crisis event nodes and its evolution mode were analyzed for the evolutionary network. Moreover, some governance strategies and measures were proposed. The results show that the crisis event of "decline in business efficiency" caused by COVID-19 is the most threatening while cyclical evolution method during crisis evolution has the greatest impact on social and economic activities. In response to COVID-19, characteristics of different evolutionary models could be considered and utilized to block and prevent inducing conditions of crisis events.

Key words: socio-economic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), crisis deduction, risk prevention and control, evolution network

中图分类号:

X913.4

陈长坤, 赵冬月. 社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 24-29.

CHEN Changkun, ZHAO Dongyue. Analysis of crisis deduction and prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic from a socio-economic perspective[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12): 24-29.

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社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析

Analysis of crisis deduction and prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic from a socio-economic perspective

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